Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 29%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: MQ 3351 at 21:40, 29%.

Nonstops that day


MQ 3351 Envoy	MIA 21:40	AVL 23:45	29%	8%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 13:53 → AVL 15:02DL 3099	6h 42m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 09:58 → AVL 11:08DL 3059	5h 08m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 12:16 → AVL 13:12DL 1182	6h 02m	99%	87%
American Details →	MIA 09:10 → LGA 12:14AA 605	1h 11m New York	LGA 13:25 → AVL 15:37AA 4418 · flown by Republic	6h 27m	92%	84%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 16:10 → AVL 17:20DL 3101	6h 40m	98%	81%
American Details →	MIA 06:00 → DCA 08:41AA 491	1h 33m Washington	DCA 10:14 → AVL 11:58AA 5213 · flown by PSA	5h 58m	97%	80%
American Details →	MIA 13:30 → CLT 15:48AA 2297	3h 38m Charlotte	CLT 19:26 → AVL 20:20AA 6112 · flown by Piedmont	6h 50m	99%	79%
American Details →	MIA 08:22 → CLT 10:25AA 361	3h 23m Charlotte	CLT 13:48 → AVL 14:44AA 5588 · flown by PSA	6h 22m	98%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON