tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 38%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: AA 1272 at 20:44, 38%.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 1272 American Flight history → MIA 20:44 BDL 23:55 38% 12% 1.2% 71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hartford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 10:22 → BDL 12:45DL 1082 6h 45m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 13:56 → BDL 16:16DL 2739 7h 56m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → MIA 08:22 → CLT 10:25AA 361 1h 32m Charlotte CLT 11:57 → BDL 14:05AA 2741 5h 43m 96% 86%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:40 → DCA 09:29AA 491 3h 30m Washington DCA 12:59 → BDL 14:27AA 5059 · flown by PSA 7h 47m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 15:34 → BDL 17:59DL 2735 7h 19m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:50 → ATL 18:52DL 1323 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 21:31 → BDL 23:54DL 1011 7h 04m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 18:56 → BDL 21:19DL 2504 7h 10m 95% 81%
AmericanDetails → MIA 13:30 → CLT 15:48AA 2297 2h 40m Charlotte CLT 18:28 → BDL 20:36AA 3280 7h 06m 97% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MIA 18:25 → DCA 20:59AA 667 1h 22m Washington DCA 22:21 → BDL 23:54AA 974 5h 29m 66% 49%
DeltaDetails → MIA 18:30 → ATL 20:33DL 1386 58m Atlanta ATL 21:31 → BDL 23:54DL 1011 5h 24m 57% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON