Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: MQ 4123 at 08:25 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–31%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4123 MIA 08:25 → BNA 09:59 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2858 MIA 18:09 → BNA 19:26 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4123 Envoy	MIA 08:25	BNA 09:59	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2592 Southwest	MIA 09:19	BNA 10:36	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
MQ 4209 Envoy	MIA 14:51	BNA 16:22	18%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 2833 American Flight history →	MIA 20:03	BNA 21:26	25%	10%	1.2%	65%
WN 2858 Southwest	MIA 18:09	BNA 19:26	31%	7%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON