Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3881 at 07:34 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 3881 MIA 07:34 → BWI 10:09 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3216 MIA 18:36 → BWI 21:24 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3881 Southwest	MIA 07:34	BWI 10:09	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2859 Southwest	MIA 11:54	BWI 14:37	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4219 Envoy	MIA 14:00	BWI 16:48	14%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 3885 Southwest	MIA 16:09	BWI 18:53	21%	6%	1.1%	no record
AA 3216 American Flight history →	MIA 18:36	BWI 21:24	24%	9%	1.1%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON