Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 361 at 08:22 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 361 MIA 08:22 → CLT 10:25 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 1577 MIA 18:56 → CLT 20:59 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 361 American Flight history →	MIA 08:22	CLT 10:25	10%	3%	0.8%	93%
AA 1965 American	MIA 08:56	CLT 11:03	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1398 American	MIA 10:06	CLT 12:13	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2297 American Flight history →	MIA 13:30	CLT 15:48	15%	6%	0.8%	78%
AA 2231 American	MIA 21:29	CLT 23:37	17%	6%	1.2%	no record
F9 3037 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 11:26	CLT 13:43	17%	6%	1.2%	72%
AA 985 American Flight history →	MIA 16:01	CLT 18:22	19%	7%	1.2%	66%
AA 3194 American	MIA 17:15	CLT 19:21	23%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 1577 American Flight history →	MIA 18:56	CLT 20:59	23%	7%	1.2%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON