tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AA 3616 at 19:59, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 3616 American flown by Envoy Flight history → MIA 19:59 CMH 22:44 18% 5% 1.0% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → CMH 11:48DL 1522 5h 48m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 12:06 → CMH 13:38DL 1750 6h 28m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53DL 1468 3h 01m Detroit DTW 19:54 → CMH 21:02DL 5838 · flown by Republic 7h 24m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:50 → ATL 18:53DL 1323 3h 47m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → CMH 00:24 +1DL 1459 7h 34m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:05 → ATL 14:12DL 1510 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 17:25 → CMH 19:03DL 2786 6h 58m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:00 → DCA 08:41AA 491 1h 31m Washington DCA 10:12 → CMH 11:46AA 4700 · flown by Republic 5h 46m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 14:21 → CMH 16:03DL 2892 5h 23m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 19:54 → CMH 21:33DL 1545 7h 24m 97% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MIA 17:00 → ORD 19:53AA 3056 1h 02m Chicago ORD 20:55 → CMH 23:33AA 4445 · flown by Republic 6h 33m 74% 62%
DeltaDetails → MIA 15:29 → LGA 18:45DL 1538 1h 10m New York LGA 19:55 → CMH 22:03DL 5681 · flown by Republic 6h 34m 75% 54%
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:10 → ORD 18:53UA 2106 52m Chicago ORD 19:45 → CMH 22:24UA 3614 · flown by Republic 6h 14m 64% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON