Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:10, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Hebron on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4115 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 19:45	CVG 22:35	19%	4%	1.2%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	1h 58m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → CVG 11:25DL 3160	5h 25m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → CVG 12:28DL 3149	5h 18m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → CVG 15:11DL 3169	6h 51m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 23:11 → CVG 00:39 +1DL 2395	6h 39m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → CVG 16:41DL 1008	6h 01m	97%	83%
American Details →	MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:19AA 2575	1h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:58 → CVG 14:27AA 3305	7h 27m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	MIA 12:05 → ATL 14:12DL 1510	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 17:59 → CVG 19:25DL 3119	7h 20m	99%	82%
American Details →	MIA 06:28 → JFK 09:35AA 525	1h 35m New York	JFK 11:10 → CVG 13:21AA 4609 · flown by Republic	6h 53m	98%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON