Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 491 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 491 MIA 06:00 → DCA 08:41 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 667 MIA 18:25 → DCA 20:59 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 491 American Flight history →	MIA 06:00	DCA 08:41	6%	2%	0.9%	93%
AA 2848 American	MIA 08:05	DCA 10:51	8%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 1612 American Flight history →	MIA 10:04	DCA 12:54	13%	5%	0.8%	85%
AA 708 American Flight history →	MIA 22:10	DCA 00:49	16%	7%	1.3%	76%
DL 2888 Delta Flight history →	MIA 11:22	DCA 14:05	17%	5%	1.0%	70%
AA 861 American	MIA 13:55	DCA 16:44	19%	8%	1.0%	no record
AA 2897 American Flight history →	MIA 20:30	DCA 23:09	21%	8%	2.1%	74%
AA 3034 American Flight history →	MIA 15:22	DCA 18:03	21%	9%	1.0%	58%
AA 1595 American	MIA 12:05	DCA 14:42	23%	10%	0.9%	no record
AA 2648 American Flight history →	MIA 19:05	DCA 21:48	23%	10%	1.5%	63%
AA 667 American Flight history →	MIA 18:25	DCA 20:59	29%	10%	1.4%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON