Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 2575 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 2575 MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:19 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 2828 MIA 17:48 → DFW 20:04 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2575 American Flight history →	MIA 07:00	DFW 09:19	8%	3%	0.8%	85%
AA 1227 American Flight history →	MIA 09:00	DFW 11:12	11%	4%	0.9%	83%
AA 893 American	MIA 09:21	DFW 11:33	12%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 3055 American Flight history →	MIA 11:00	DFW 13:15	15%	7%	0.9%	74%
AA 1287 American Flight history →	MIA 12:05	DFW 14:15	16%	7%	0.9%	70%
F9 2135 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 14:33	DFW 16:51	18%	9%	1.1%	77%
AA 2183 American	MIA 14:11	DFW 16:24	18%	8%	0.9%	no record
AA 1679 American Flight history →	MIA 21:30	DFW 23:42	20%	7%	1.6%	74%
AA 1824 American Flight history →	MIA 15:35	DFW 17:48	20%	9%	0.9%	63%
AA 3259 American Flight history →	MIA 16:47	DFW 19:09	24%	9%	1.3%	73%
AA 2289 American	MIA 19:34	DFW 21:32	24%	8%	1.4%	no record
AA 2828 American Flight history →	MIA 17:48	DFW 20:04	25%	9%	1.2%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON