Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 23%, against 13% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1468 at 13:38, 15%.

Safest bet that day DL 1468 MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest DL 2548 MIA 18:42 → DTW 21:46 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Weather 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1468 Delta Flight history →	MIA 13:38	DTW 16:53	15%	4%	0.8%	78%
AA 2649 American Flight history →	MIA 19:45	DTW 22:57	27%	7%	1.0%	69%
DL 2548 Delta	MIA 18:42	DTW 21:46	28%	8%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON