Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: MQ 3436 at 10:10 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–22%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3436 MIA 10:10 → EYW 11:20 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 3438 MIA 18:21 → EYW 19:26 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3436 Envoy	MIA 10:10	EYW 11:20	8%	2%	0.9%	no record
AA 3577 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 12:28	EYW 13:40	11%	3%	0.9%	85%
MQ 3438 Envoy	MIA 18:21	EYW 19:26	22%	6%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON