tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AA 3435 at 21:30, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 3435 American flown by Envoy Flight history → MIA 21:30 GSP 23:25 16% 6% 1.8% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Greenville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 11:16 → GSP 12:14DL 1725 6h 14m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 13:59 → GSP 15:00DL 3010 6h 40m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:50 → ATL 18:53DL 1323 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 21:55 → GSP 22:55DL 2281 6h 05m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → MIA 08:22 → CLT 10:25AA 361 2h 40m Charlotte CLT 13:05 → GSP 14:07AA 5805 · flown by Piedmont 5h 45m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 19:39 → GSP 20:39DL 3136 6h 30m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211 47m Atlanta ATL 09:57 → GSP 10:57DL 2158 3h 47m 88% 82%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:05 → ATL 14:12DL 1510 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 16:49 → GSP 17:49DL 3095 5h 44m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → MIA 11:27 → EWR 14:36UA 2433 2h 23m Newark EWR 16:59 → GSP 19:08UA 3584 · flown by Republic 7h 41m 100% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:53 → IAH 18:56UA 1216 54m Houston IAH 19:50 → GSP 23:19UA 4033 · flown by Mesa 6h 26m 75% 60%
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:50 → ATL 18:53DL 1323 46m Atlanta ATL 19:39 → GSP 20:39DL 3136 3h 49m 69% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON