tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, UA 2435 at 13:10, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2435 United Flight history → MIA 13:10 IAD 15:53 14% 5% 0.7% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135 6h 51m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 1h 49m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → IAD 11:37DL 1444 5h 37m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:50 → ATL 18:53DL 1323 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549 7h 51m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:05 → ATL 14:12DL 1510 3h 53m Atlanta ATL 18:05 → IAD 19:54DL 1309 7h 49m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695 6h 06m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417 1h 31m Houston IAH 12:13 → IAD 16:30UA 2366 7h 42m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → MIA 16:01 → CLT 18:22AA 985 3h 02m Charlotte CLT 21:24 → IAD 22:56AA 2608 6h 55m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → MIA 12:29 → IAH 14:23UA 470 2h 12m Houston IAH 16:35 → IAD 20:46UA 2388 8h 17m 95% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:05 → ATL 14:12DL 1510 47m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695 4h 41m 75% 63%
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:10 → ORD 18:53UA 2106 47m Chicago ORD 19:40 → IAD 22:30UA 304 6h 20m 59% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON