Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2417 at 08:48 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 2417 MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 2230 MIA 20:04 → IAH 21:52 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2417 United Flight history →	MIA 08:48	IAH 10:42	8%	4%	0.7%	85%
AA 1347 American	MIA 09:06	IAH 11:00	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 470 United Flight history →	MIA 12:29	IAH 14:23	13%	5%	0.8%	87%
UA 1216 United Flight history →	MIA 16:53	IAH 18:56	20%	8%	1.1%	74%
AA 678 American Flight history →	MIA 14:35	IAH 16:26	22%	9%	0.8%	61%
AA 2230 American Flight history →	MIA 20:04	IAH 21:52	24%	10%	1.6%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON