Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 20%, against 9% on a calm day. Safest: AA 3897 at 21:58, 20%.

Nonstops that day


AA 3897 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 21:58	ILM 23:59	20%	6%	1.0%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wilmington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → ILM 13:43DL 731	6h 33m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:15 → LGA 11:16DL 2339	3h 29m New York	LGA 14:45 → ILM 16:30DL 5212 · flown by Endeavor	8h 15m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 16:28 → ILM 18:03DL 1292	7h 23m	99%	90%
American Details →	MIA 08:22 → CLT 10:25AA 361	1h 45m Charlotte	CLT 12:10 → ILM 13:20AA 5416 · flown by PSA	4h 58m	97%	88%
American Details →	MIA 16:01 → CLT 18:22AA 985	3h 42m Charlotte	CLT 22:04 → ILM 23:23AA 2831	7h 22m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:50 → ATL 18:53DL 1323	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 21:20 → ILM 22:56DL 3070	6h 06m	94%	85%
American Details →	MIA 13:30 → CLT 15:48AA 2297	1h 26m Charlotte	CLT 17:14 → ILM 18:23AA 2105	4h 53m	92%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 21:20 → ILM 22:56DL 3070	4h 56m	73%	66%
American Details →	MIA 18:56 → CLT 20:59AA 1577	1h 05m Charlotte	CLT 22:04 → ILM 23:23AA 2831	4h 27m	68%	59%
Delta Details →	MIA 15:29 → LGA 18:45DL 1538	1h 03m New York	LGA 19:48 → ILM 21:33DL 5204 · flown by Endeavor	6h 04m	69%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON