tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 30%, against 15% on a calm day. Safest: AA 2518 at 20:59, 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2518 American Flight history → MIA 20:59 IND 23:50 30% 9% 1.2% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013 6h 36m 99% 93%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:40 → ORD 09:08AA 581 2h 35m Chicago ORD 11:43 → IND 13:57AA 4713 · flown by Republic 7h 17m 99% 93%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:07 → EWR 10:11UA 1864 1h 43m Newark EWR 11:54 → IND 14:07UA 3446 · flown by Republic 7h 00m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 13:48 → IND 15:19DL 3134 6h 59m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:15 → LGA 11:16DL 2339 3h 27m New York LGA 14:43 → IND 17:13DL 5646 · flown by Republic 8h 58m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53DL 1468 3h 39m Detroit DTW 20:32 → IND 21:50DL 4898 · flown by Endeavor 8h 12m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:25 → LGA 09:24DL 2387 2h 21m New York LGA 11:45 → IND 14:06DL 5642 · flown by Republic 7h 41m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 16:01 → IND 17:42DL 2979 7h 02m 98% 91%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MIA 17:00 → ORD 19:53AA 3056 59m Chicago ORD 20:52 → IND 23:06AA 4740 · flown by Republic 6h 06m 67% 62%
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:53 → IAH 18:56UA 1216 1h 03m Houston IAH 19:59 → IND 23:26UA 465 6h 33m 69% 57%
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:10 → ORD 18:53UA 2106 52m Chicago ORD 19:45 → IND 22:05UA 3707 · flown by Republic 5h 55m 58% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON