Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: MQ 4024 at 08:04 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–18%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4024 MIA 08:04 → JAX 09:22 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 416 MIA 22:53 → JAX 00:15 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4024 Envoy	MIA 08:04	JAX 09:22	7%	2%	0.9%	no record
AA 4069 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 14:02	JAX 15:33	15%	4%	1.2%	77%
MQ 4023 Envoy	MIA 17:50	JAX 19:25	16%	5%	1.2%	no record
AA 416 American Flight history →	MIA 22:53	JAX 00:15	18%	9%	0.9%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON