Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 525 at 06:28 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 525 MIA 06:28 → JFK 09:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2600 MIA 18:30 → JFK 21:33 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 525 American Flight history →	MIA 06:28	JFK 09:35	5%	2%	1.6%	92%
DL 2428 Delta Flight history →	MIA 07:05	JFK 10:03	6%	2%	1.5%	88%
AA 3205 American	MIA 08:14	JFK 11:32	8%	3%	1.7%	no record
AA 2341 American Flight history →	MIA 08:27	JFK 11:19	10%	3%	1.6%	84%
AA 2062 American	MIA 10:35	JFK 13:34	18%	7%	2.1%	no record
AA 944 American Flight history →	MIA 21:51	JFK 00:59	21%	7%	1.8%	64%
DL 1473 Delta	MIA 11:30	JFK 14:19	23%	7%	2.1%	no record
DL 1514 Delta Flight history →	MIA 15:17	JFK 18:50	24%	11%	1.4%	73%
AA 1357 American Flight history →	MIA 19:50	JFK 23:01	26%	9%	1.5%	56%
AA 2124 American	MIA 16:24	JFK 19:30	26%	14%	1.7%	no record
DL 1794 Delta	MIA 19:48	JFK 22:37	27%	10%	1.5%	no record
AA 2899 American Flight history →	MIA 13:54	JFK 16:55	27%	9%	1.5%	61%
AA 2600 American	MIA 18:30	JFK 21:33	29%	11%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON