Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1490 at 08:31 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 1490 MIA 08:31 → LAS 10:50 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3321 MIA 17:15 → LAS 19:34 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1490 American	MIA 08:31	LAS 10:50	11%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 1173 American	MIA 13:47	LAS 16:04	25%	10%	0.7%	no record
AA 3321 American Flight history →	MIA 17:15	LAS 19:34	32%	11%	0.8%	65%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466	7h 52m	98%	90%
United Details →	MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045	1h 22m Denver	DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526	7h 47m	97%	88%
United Details →	MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417	1h 13m Houston	IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524	7h 25m	95%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON