Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 11–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 960 MIA 08:39 → LAX 11:04 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 2458 MIA 21:58 → LAX 00:48 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 960 American Flight history →	MIA 08:39	LAX 11:04	11%	3%	0.7%	93%
AA 3288 American Flight history →	MIA 09:55	LAX 12:24	11%	3%	0.8%	86%
DL 450 Delta Flight history →	MIA 19:17	LAX 21:49	18%	6%	1.2%	84%
AA 3014 American Flight history →	MIA 13:46	LAX 16:16	18%	8%	0.8%	73%
AA 996 American	MIA 15:39	LAX 18:15	20%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 2458 American	MIA 21:58	LAX 00:48	20%	7%	1.2%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	MIA 07:22 → PHX 09:15AA 1983	1h 35m Phoenix	PHX 10:50 → LAX 12:26AA 2027	8h 04m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → LAX 11:55DL 501	7h 45m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 09:15 → LAX 10:45DL 827	7h 45m	96%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON