Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 35%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2387 at 06:25, 6%.

Safest bet that day DL 2387 MIA 06:25 → LGA 09:24 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 2271 MIA 18:06 → LGA 21:12 · 63% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Weather 35% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2387 Delta Flight history →	MIA 06:25	LGA 09:24	6%	2%	0.8%	87%
DL 2339 Delta Flight history →	MIA 08:15	LGA 11:16	11%	2%	0.8%	76%
AA 605 American Flight history →	MIA 09:10	LGA 12:14	15%	3%	0.8%	88%
DL 1498 Delta	MIA 11:37	LGA 14:29	21%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 2424 American	MIA 10:08	LGA 13:13	22%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 2484 American	MIA 12:25	LGA 15:23	25%	10%	1.2%	no record
AA 552 American	MIA 14:25	LGA 17:22	39%	16%	1.2%	no record
DL 1538 Delta Flight history →	MIA 15:29	LGA 18:45	39%	13%	1.3%	72%worse than usual
AA 897 American	MIA 15:23	LGA 18:25	46%	16%	1.9%	no record
AA 1389 American Flight history →	MIA 20:40	LGA 23:44	46%	16%	2.1%	58%
DL 2300 Delta Flight history →	MIA 19:40	LGA 22:59	50%	20%	1.9%	57%
AA 2172 American	MIA 16:23	LGA 19:25	52%	19%	3.2%	no record
AA 2262 American	MIA 19:47	LGA 22:45	58%	26%	2.7%	no record
AA 2271 American Flight history →	MIA 18:06	LGA 21:12	63%	25%	2.7%	57%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON