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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Newark, leaving 08:48, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Kansas City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → EWR 11:54UA 408 2h 53m Newark EWR 14:47 → MCI 17:02UA 3436 · flown by Republic 9h 14m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:13DL 2747 7h 13m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 13:24 → MCI 14:29DL 1443 7h 09m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045 3h 40m Denver DEN 13:40 → MCI 16:22UA 586 9h 45m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53DL 1468 2h 56m Detroit DTW 19:49 → MCI 20:49DL 1321 8h 11m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 20:08 → MCI 21:24DL 3023 8h 15m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:05 → ATL 14:12DL 1510 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 17:51 → MCI 19:07DL 1130 8h 02m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:19AA 2575 2h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:22 → MCI 13:14AA 1376 7h 14m 99% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MIA 16:47 → DFW 19:09AA 3259 1h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:19 → MCI 21:57AA 2267 6h 10m 74% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON