Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 33%, against 11% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1578 at 07:10, 5%.

Safest bet that day WN 1578 MIA 07:10 → MCO 08:14 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1610 MIA 16:54 → MCO 18:10 · 56% chance 15+ min late

Weather 33% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1578 Southwest	MIA 07:10	MCO 08:14	5%	2%	0.9%	no record
AA 1693 American Flight history →	MIA 08:26	MCO 09:37	10%	4%	1.9%	97%
AA 2587 American Flight history →	MIA 10:02	MCO 11:12	15%	5%	1.3%	83%
AA 1635 American	MIA 13:55	MCO 15:06	37%	14%	2.3%	no record
AA 875 American	MIA 21:55	MCO 23:09	40%	15%	2.3%	no record
AA 2803 American Flight history →	MIA 19:37	MCO 20:51	50%	22%	3.2%	60%worse than usual
WN 3346 Southwest	MIA 16:42	MCO 17:46	50%	17%	3.6%	no record
AA 1610 American	MIA 16:54	MCO 18:10	56%	30%	3.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON