Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 2866 at 16:04, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2866 Southwest	MIA 16:04	MDW 18:18	28%	7%	1.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	6h 56m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	6h 35m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:50 → ATL 18:53DL 1323	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	6h 25m	95%	81%
Delta Details →	MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53DL 1468	1h 14m Detroit	DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor	5h 51m	90%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON