tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 48%, against 22% on a calm day. Safest: AA 1551 at 16:44, 48%.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 1551 American Flight history → MIA 16:44 MEM 18:07 48% 16% 2.3% 57%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778 6h 22m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 13:48 → MEM 14:14DL 733 6h 54m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → MEM 10:32DL 2937 5h 32m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 3h 53m Atlanta ATL 16:41 → MEM 17:09DL 1681 7h 29m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → MIA 08:22 → CLT 10:24AA 361 3h 25m Charlotte CLT 13:49 → MEM 14:44AA 2852 7h 22m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:19AA 2575 3h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:37 → MEM 14:19AA 3888 · flown by Envoy 8h 19m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53DL 1468 3h 12m Detroit DTW 20:05 → MEM 21:01DL 1230 8h 23m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → MIA 10:04 → DCA 12:53AA 1612 2h 42m Washington DCA 15:35 → MEM 17:00AA 4497 · flown by Republic 7h 56m 97% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MIA 15:29 → LGA 18:45DL 1538 1h 02m New York LGA 19:47 → MEM 21:31DL 5606 · flown by Republic 7h 02m 64% 51%
AmericanDetails → MIA 19:02 → ORD 21:36AA 2194 54m Chicago ORD 22:30 → MEM 00:18 +1AA 3945 · flown by Envoy 6h 16m 46% 40%
AmericanDetails → MIA 18:56 → CLT 20:58AA 1577 55m Charlotte CLT 21:53 → MEM 22:43AA 1372 4h 47m 50% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON