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Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: American via Phoenix, leaving 07:22, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Ontario on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:22 → PHX 09:15AA 1983 1h 34m Phoenix PHX 10:49 → ONT 12:20AA 2661 7h 58m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 1h 20m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 38m 97% 86%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:19AA 2575 2h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:08 → ONT 13:32AA 2635 9h 32m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045 1h 25m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 8h 10m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 19:01 → ONT 20:49DL 2891 9h 40m 96% 78%
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:53 → IAH 18:56UA 1216 1h 35m Houston IAH 20:31 → ONT 21:55UA 1563 8h 02m 90% 74%
AmericanDetails → MIA 15:35 → DFW 17:48AA 1824 3h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:19 → ONT 22:39AA 1695 10h 04m 98% 74%
UnitedDetails → MIA 15:44 → DEN 18:23UA 2852 57m Denver DEN 19:20 → ONT 20:42UA 2028 7h 58m 80% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON