Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 581 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 581 MIA 06:40 → ORD 09:08 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 2106 MIA 16:10 → ORD 18:53 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 581 American Flight history →	MIA 06:40	ORD 09:08	9%	3%	1.7%	87%
AA 1464 American	MIA 05:11	ORD 07:34	11%	3%	1.7%	no record
AA 3076 American	MIA 08:28	ORD 10:48	12%	5%	1.3%	no record
AA 2634 American Flight history →	MIA 22:15	ORD 00:37	15%	7%	1.0%	70%
UA 1983 United Flight history →	MIA 12:30	ORD 15:13	17%	8%	0.9%	82%
AA 835 American	MIA 13:08	ORD 15:29	19%	10%	1.1%	no record
AA 483 American Flight history →	MIA 21:12	ORD 23:26	21%	10%	1.7%	79%
AA 2194 American Flight history →	MIA 19:02	ORD 21:37	27%	13%	1.5%	62%
AA 3304 American Flight history →	MIA 16:46	ORD 19:18	27%	14%	1.6%	49%
AA 3056 American Flight history →	MIA 17:00	ORD 19:53	27%	13%	1.3%	60%
UA 2106 United Flight history →	MIA 16:10	ORD 18:53	29%	14%	1.0%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON