tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 42%, against 18% on a calm day. Safest: AA 775 at 19:55, 42%.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 775 American Flight history → MIA 19:55 ORF 22:22 42% 14% 2.3% 67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 10:17 → ORF 12:04DL 2755 6h 04m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → ORF 14:14DL 2925 7h 04m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 14:10 → ORF 15:50DL 1101 7h 30m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:54 → LGA 09:53DL 2387 2h 17m New York LGA 12:10 → ORF 13:29DL 5329 · flown by Endeavor 6h 35m 98% 89%
AmericanDetails → MIA 08:22 → CLT 10:25AA 361 3h 25m Charlotte CLT 13:50 → ORF 15:14AA 1323 6h 52m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 16:28 → ORF 18:15DL 1346 7h 35m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → EWR 11:54UA 408 3h 54m Newark EWR 15:48 → ORF 17:25UA 4524 · flown by GoJet 8h 37m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 18:30 → ORF 20:17DL 2984 6h 08m 94% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MIA 16:01 → CLT 18:22AA 985 57m Charlotte CLT 19:19 → ORF 20:44AA 5622 · flown by PSA 4h 43m 71% 57%
AmericanDetails → MIA 16:47 → DFW 19:09AA 3259 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:07 → ORF 00:28 +1AA 1379 7h 41m 60% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON