Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 551 at 09:15 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 551 MIA 09:15 → PHL 12:10 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest F9 1204 MIA 21:21 → PHL 00:27 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 551 American Flight history →	MIA 09:15	PHL 12:10	9%	3%	0.9%	86%
AA 1918 American	MIA 11:40	PHL 14:36	15%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 3274 American	MIA 20:00	PHL 23:03	18%	7%	1.8%	no record
AA 3169 American	MIA 18:04	PHL 21:04	20%	7%	1.1%	no record
AA 2795 American	MIA 16:42	PHL 19:51	20%	9%	1.3%	no record
AA 2191 American	MIA 13:58	PHL 16:56	21%	7%	1.0%	no record
F9 1204 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 21:21	PHL 00:27	24%	9%	2.2%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON