Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1983 at 07:22 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 1983 MIA 07:22 → PHX 09:15 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2107 MIA 19:54 → PHX 21:36 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1983 American Flight history →	MIA 07:22	PHX 09:15	11%	3%	0.7%	92%
AA 3172 American Flight history →	MIA 10:49	PHX 12:35	16%	5%	0.7%	77%
AA 1138 American	MIA 13:47	PHX 15:42	20%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 2107 American	MIA 19:54	PHX 21:36	26%	9%	0.9%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	50m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796	6h 43m	87%	78%
American Details →	MIA 11:00 → DFW 13:15AA 3055	1h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:30 → PHX 14:57AA 2108	6h 57m	94%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON