tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via LaGuardia, leaving 06:25, is the safest bet: 95% chance of reaching Pittsburgh on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:25 → LGA 09:24DL 2387 3h 46m New York LGA 13:10 → PIT 14:47DL 5715 · flown by Republic 8h 22m 100% 95%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PIT 12:52DL 1345 6h 52m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261 3h 48m Atlanta ATL 14:08 → PIT 15:50DL 1353 7h 30m 99% 93%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:40 → ORD 09:08AA 581 1h 11m Chicago ORD 10:19 → PIT 13:03AA 4467 · flown by Republic 6h 23m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → PIT 17:08DL 1568 6h 28m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:05 → ATL 14:12DL 1510 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 16:57 → PIT 18:49DL 3122 6h 44m 98% 90%
AmericanDetails → MIA 13:54 → JFK 16:55AA 2899 3h 35m New York JFK 20:30 → PIT 22:27AA 4611 · flown by Republic 8h 33m 98% 89%
AmericanDetails → MIA 08:22 → CLT 10:25AA 361 1h 59m Charlotte CLT 12:24 → PIT 13:59AA 1736 5h 37m 97% 88%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:50 → ATL 18:53DL 1323 1h 05m Atlanta ATL 19:58 → PIT 21:51DL 2583 5h 01m 75% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON