tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 28%, against 15% on a calm day. Safest: AA 983 at 21:09, 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 983 American Flight history → MIA 21:09 RIC 23:37 28% 9% 1.3% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → RIC 11:56DL 2650 5h 56m 99% 94%
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 12:30 → RIC 14:07DL 3152 6h 57m 99% 94%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 1h 58m Atlanta ATL 14:46 → RIC 16:23DL 1214 5h 43m 97% 91%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → EWR 11:54UA 408 3h 29m Newark EWR 15:23 → RIC 17:06UA 3639 · flown by Republic 8h 18m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:05 → ATL 14:12DL 1510 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 17:12 → RIC 18:53DL 1348 6h 48m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → RIC 00:51 +1DL 1175 6h 51m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 18:32 → RIC 20:15DL 1263 6h 06m 94% 87%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417 1h 21m Houston IAH 12:03 → RIC 16:11UA 4057 · flown by Mesa 7h 23m 96% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MIA 11:27 → EWR 14:36UA 2433 47m Newark EWR 15:23 → RIC 17:06UA 3639 · flown by Republic 5h 39m 57% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON