tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:20, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 3010 American MIA 20:06 SAN 22:33 28% 9% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 10h 08m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:05 → ATL 14:12DL 1510 3h 48m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → SAN 19:41DL 712 10h 36m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 15:37 → SAN 17:20DL 924 9h 40m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045 3h 30m Denver DEN 13:30 → SAN 14:55UA 1302 10h 18m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:22 → PHX 09:15AA 1983 1h 19m Phoenix PHX 10:34 → SAN 12:01AA 2122 7h 39m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417 3h 41m Houston IAH 14:23 → SAN 15:51UA 1114 10h 03m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 19:45 → SAN 21:26DL 819 10h 17m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:00 → SFO 11:03UA 1257 3h 14m San Francisco SFO 14:17 → SAN 16:05UA 1668 11h 05m 99% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:50 → ATL 18:53DL 1323 52m Atlanta ATL 19:45 → SAN 21:26DL 819 7h 36m 68% 57%
UnitedDetails → MIA 15:44 → DEN 18:23UA 2852 57m Denver DEN 19:20 → SAN 20:46UA 540 8h 02m 71% 56%
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:53 → IAH 18:56UA 1216 53m Houston IAH 19:49 → SAN 21:11UA 1911 7h 18m 60% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON