tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 35%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: AA 1468 at 21:52, 35%.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 1468 American Flight history → MIA 21:52 SAT 23:59 35% 10% 0.9% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 7h 28m 99% 91%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045 3h 44m Denver DEN 13:44 → SAT 16:55UA 1022 10h 18m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → SAT 15:10DL 2009 7h 50m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:07 → EWR 10:11UA 1864 2h 09m Newark EWR 12:20 → SAT 15:21UA 515 9h 14m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:22 → PHX 09:15AA 1983 3h 10m Phoenix PHX 12:25 → SAT 16:52AA 570 10h 30m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → MIA 12:05 → DFW 14:15AA 1287 3h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:35 → SAT 18:54AA 3899 · flown by Envoy 7h 49m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 15:58 → SAT 17:29DL 1465 7h 49m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417 3h 56m Houston IAH 14:38 → SAT 15:42UA 2030 7h 54m 100% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:50 → ATL 18:53DL 1323 50m Atlanta ATL 19:43 → SAT 21:11DL 1222 5h 21m 66% 56%
AmericanDetails → MIA 15:35 → DFW 17:48AA 1824 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:35 → SAT 19:53AA 2368 5h 18m 67% 51%
AmericanDetails → MIA 16:47 → DFW 19:09AA 3259 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:55 → SAT 21:03AA 546 5h 16m 48% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON