Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 44%, against 25% on a calm day. Safest: AA 647 at 20:05, 44%.

Nonstops that day


AA 647 American Flight history →	MIA 20:05	SDF 22:55	44%	18%	1.3%	55%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 10:58 → SDF 12:23DL 1481	6h 23m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 13:39 → SDF 15:04DL 3195	6h 44m	99%	92%
American Details →	MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226	1h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:31 → SDF 12:48AA 3791 · flown by Envoy	7h 23m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:50 → ATL 18:52DL 1323	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 22:39 → SDF 00:06 +1DL 2624	7h 16m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	MIA 13:13 → DTW 16:12DL 1468	3h 33m Detroit	DTW 19:45 → SDF 21:12DL 5832 · flown by Republic	7h 59m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 15:45 → SDF 17:11DL 1126	6h 31m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	MIA 12:05 → ATL 14:12DL 1510	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → SDF 19:13DL 2831	7h 08m	99%	88%
American Details →	MIA 06:02 → CLT 08:06AA 3004	2h 17m Charlotte	CLT 10:23 → SDF 11:52AA 5145 · flown by PSA	5h 50m	98%	88%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MIA 11:00 → DFW 13:15AA 3055	55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:10 → SDF 17:33AA 3629 · flown by Envoy	6h 33m	74%	68%
American Details →	MIA 18:56 → CLT 20:59AA 1577	1h 05m Charlotte	CLT 22:04 → SDF 23:43AA 671	4h 47m	62%	54%
American Details →	MIA 16:46 → ORD 19:18AA 3304	54m Chicago	ORD 20:12 → SDF 22:37AA 4603 · flown by Republic	5h 51m	56%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON