Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:20, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 50% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 506 Delta Flight history →	MIA 18:26	SEA 22:10	21%	6%	1.1%	60%
AS 305 Alaska Flight history →	MIA 18:20	SEA 22:00	22%	6%	1.2%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	10h 40m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	9h 13m	97%	88%
American Details →	MIA 13:46 → LAX 16:16AA 3014	3h 25m Los Angeles	LAX 19:41 → SEA 22:30AA 6371 · flown by SkyWest	11h 44m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53DL 1468	3h 41m Detroit	DTW 20:34 → SEA 22:33DL 565	11h 55m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481	9h 09m	97%	84%
United Details →	MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417	1h 27m Houston	IAH 12:09 → SEA 15:00UA 2228	9h 12m	97%	84%
American Details →	MIA 08:22 → CLT 10:25AA 361	2h 09m Charlotte	CLT 12:34 → SEA 15:24AA 506	10h 02m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	MIA 07:05 → JFK 10:03DL 2428	1h 27m New York	JFK 11:30 → SEA 14:50DL 1719	10h 45m	97%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MIA 11:27 → EWR 14:36UA 2433	51m Newark	EWR 15:27 → SEA 18:24UA 1814	9h 57m	50%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON