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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1257 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 1257 MIA 08:00 → SFO 11:03 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2753 MIA 14:00 → SFO 17:08 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time
Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 1257 United Flight history → MIA 08:00 SFO 11:03 11% 3% 0.7% 90%
AA 2347 American MIA 20:46 SFO 00:00 25% 10% 1.2% no record
AA 2753 American Flight history → MIA 14:00 SFO 17:08 30% 8% 0.8% 92%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 1h 58m Atlanta ATL 09:59 → SFO 11:55DL 672 8h 55m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 1h 06m Atlanta ATL 13:54 → SFO 15:49DL 823 8h 09m 91% 80%
UnitedDetails → MIA 12:29 → IAH 14:23UA 470 2h 02m Houston IAH 16:25 → SFO 18:30UA 382 9h 01m 95% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON