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Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: American via Phoenix, leaving 07:22, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:22 → PHX 09:15AA 1983 1h 47m Phoenix PHX 11:02 → SJC 13:09AA 3940 · flown by Envoy 8h 47m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 1h 42m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 8h 30m 97% 89%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:19AA 2575 2h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:04 → SJC 13:54AA 2834 9h 54m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045 1h 35m Denver DEN 11:35 → SJC 13:20UA 1256 8h 43m 97% 84%
AmericanDetails → MIA 10:49 → PHX 12:35AA 3172 3h 47m Phoenix PHX 16:22 → SJC 18:29AA 2094 10h 40m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:50 → ATL 18:53DL 1323 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 8h 59m 93% 83%
AmericanDetails → MIA 15:35 → DFW 17:48AA 1824 3h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:09 → SJC 23:34AA 364 10h 59m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → MIA 15:44 → DEN 18:23UA 2852 1h 07m Denver DEN 19:30 → SJC 21:09UA 2745 8h 25m 86% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:10 → ORD 18:53UA 2106 1h 05m Chicago ORD 19:58 → SJC 22:43UA 481 9h 33m 74% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON