Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1341 at 08:26 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 1341 MIA 08:26 → SJU 11:15 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 1689 MIA 18:10 → SJU 21:02 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1341 American Flight history →	MIA 08:26	SJU 11:15	7%	3%	0.8%	86%
AA 1613 American Flight history →	MIA 11:05	SJU 13:50	14%	7%	0.8%	85%
AA 967 American Flight history →	MIA 13:05	SJU 15:55	19%	9%	0.9%	60%
AA 1689 American Flight history →	MIA 18:10	SJU 21:02	28%	10%	1.8%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON