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Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 07:37, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045 3h 25m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:57UA 1707 10h 20m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:22 → PHX 09:15AA 1983 1h 52m Phoenix PHX 11:07 → SNA 12:44AA 1656 8h 22m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:19AA 2575 2h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:22 → SNA 12:45AA 1933 8h 45m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → MIA 09:00 → DFW 11:12AA 1227 3h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:23 → SNA 15:46AA 2659 9h 46m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → MIA 11:00 → DFW 13:15AA 3055 2h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:10 → SNA 17:33AA 3223 9h 33m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417 1h 47m Houston IAH 12:29 → SNA 14:12UA 1533 8h 24m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 9h 31m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:00 → SFO 11:03UA 1257 1h 24m San Francisco SFO 12:27 → SNA 14:12UA 2441 9h 12m 98% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:10 → ORD 18:53UA 2106 52m Chicago ORD 19:45 → SNA 22:19UA 308 9h 09m 64% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON