tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 33%, against 11% on a calm day. Safest: AA 4071 at 22:54, 33%.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 4071 American flown by Envoy Flight history → MIA 22:54 SRQ 23:59 33% 9% 2.7% 85%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → SRQ 15:24DL 3115 7h 04m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 2h 04m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104 5h 44m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332 2h 04m Atlanta ATL 18:17 → SRQ 19:56DL 3109 5h 47m 92% 81%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:25 → LGA 09:24DL 2387 1h 04m New York LGA 10:28 → SRQ 13:33DL 2412 7h 08m 95% 80%
AmericanDetails → MIA 13:30 → CLT 15:48AA 2297 3h 24m Charlotte CLT 19:12 → SRQ 21:07AA 2604 7h 37m 99% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MIA 16:01 → CLT 18:22AA 985 50m Charlotte CLT 19:12 → SRQ 21:07AA 2604 5h 06m 57% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON