tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Tulsa on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620 6h 56m 99% 92%
AmericanDetails → MIA 08:22 → CLT 10:24AA 361 2h 10m Charlotte CLT 12:34 → TUL 14:16AA 2657 6h 54m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → MIA 15:44 → DEN 18:23UA 2852 2h 32m Denver DEN 20:55 → TUL 23:47UA 4712 · flown by SkyWest 9h 03m 95% 86%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417 3h 47m Houston IAH 14:29 → TUL 16:10UA 6176 · flown by Mesa 8h 22m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:05 → ATL 14:12DL 1510 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837 6h 59m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:50 → ATL 18:53DL 1323 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 22:18 → TUL 23:19DL 2043 7h 29m 97% 85%
AmericanDetails → MIA 16:46 → ORD 19:17AA 3304 2h 48m Chicago ORD 22:05 → TUL 00:06 +1AA 4281 · flown by Envoy 8h 20m 93% 84%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:19AA 2575 1h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:45 → TUL 12:06AA 2352 6h 06m 97% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MIA 16:47 → DFW 19:08AA 3259 1h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:27 → TUL 21:45AA 2014 5h 58m 74% 57%
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:53 → IAH 18:56UA 1216 1h 07m Houston IAH 20:03 → TUL 21:36UA 1927 5h 43m 71% 57%
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332 48m Atlanta ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837 4h 55m 63% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON