tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 25%, against 15% on a calm day. Safest: AA 2716 at 21:45, 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2716 American Flight history → MIA 21:45 TYS 23:59 25% 8% 1.2% 43%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → TYS 11:10DL 1743 5h 10m 98% 93%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 13:52 → TYS 14:48DL 1148 6h 28m 99% 91%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:19AA 2575 1h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:43 → TYS 14:06AA 2544 7h 06m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 22:59 → TYS 00:02 +1DL 3072 6h 02m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 16:16 → TYS 17:16DL 2571 6h 36m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → MIA 08:22 → CLT 10:25AA 361 3h 59m Charlotte CLT 14:24 → TYS 15:42AA 5831 · flown by Piedmont 7h 20m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → TYS 13:16DL 4724 · flown by Endeavor 6h 09m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → MIA 15:22 → DCA 18:03AA 3034 1h 43m Washington DCA 19:46 → TYS 21:33AA 5484 · flown by PSA 6h 11m 92% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:53 → IAH 18:56UA 1216 54m Houston IAH 19:50 → TYS 23:12UA 6206 · flown by Mesa 6h 19m 62% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON