tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 20%, against 9% on a calm day. Safest: AA 4300 at 23:10, 20%.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 4300 American flown by Envoy Flight history → MIA 23:10 VPS 23:59 20% 6% 1.3% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → VPS 10:29DL 2048 5h 29m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261 3h 30m Atlanta ATL 13:50 → VPS 14:00DL 2832 6h 40m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 15:43 → VPS 16:01DL 2170 6h 21m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097 6h 29m 95% 87%
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803 5h 33m 94% 86%
AmericanDetails → MIA 13:30 → CLT 15:48AA 2297 1h 26m Charlotte CLT 17:14 → VPS 17:54AA 2197 5h 24m 91% 76%
AmericanDetails → MIA 11:00 → DFW 13:15AA 3055 3h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:37 → VPS 18:38AA 2673 8h 38m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → MIA 09:00 → DFW 11:12AA 1227 1h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:46 → VPS 14:43AA 2501 6h 43m 95% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON