tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: American via DFW, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:19AA 2575 3h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:31 → XNA 13:54AA 3803 · flown by Envoy 7h 54m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:40 → ORD 09:08AA 581 2h 29m Chicago ORD 11:37 → XNA 13:26AA 4028 · flown by Envoy 7h 46m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → MIA 09:00 → DFW 11:12AA 1227 3h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:19 → XNA 15:47AA 3840 · flown by Envoy 7h 47m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045 3h 30m Denver DEN 13:30 → XNA 16:25UA 5641 · flown by SkyWest 9h 48m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → MIA 09:10 → LGA 12:13AA 605 1h 41m New York LGA 13:54 → XNA 16:18AA 4472 · flown by Republic 8h 08m 95% 86%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 15:47 → XNA 16:40DL 5128 · flown by Endeavor 7h 00m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → MIA 15:35 → DFW 17:47AA 1824 3h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:20 → XNA 22:58AA 4101 · flown by Envoy 8h 23m 97% 86%
AmericanDetails → MIA 11:00 → DFW 13:15AA 3055 3h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:44 → XNA 18:11AA 3693 · flown by Envoy 8h 11m 99% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MIA 17:48 → DFW 20:03AA 2828 1h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:20 → XNA 22:58AA 4101 · flown by Envoy 6h 10m 68% 60%
DeltaDetails → MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386 1h 03m Atlanta ATL 21:17 → XNA 22:09DL 5159 · flown by Endeavor 5h 09m 65% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON