Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 3–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1221 MKE 05:40 → ATL 08:41 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 1206 MKE 18:38 → ATL 21:50 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1221 Delta Flight history →	MKE 05:40	ATL 08:41	3%	2%	0.1%	91%
DL 1236 Delta Flight history →	MKE 06:50	ATL 09:57	3%	2%	0.2%	89%
DL 2999 Delta Flight history →	MKE 10:12	ATL 13:16	4%	2%	0.1%	95%
DL 1151 Delta Flight history →	MKE 12:32	ATL 15:46	5%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 1246 Delta Flight history →	MKE 14:59	ATL 18:06	7%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 1206 Delta Flight history →	MKE 18:38	ATL 21:50	7%	3%	0.5%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON