tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via O'Hare, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Austin on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MKE 05:00 → ORD 05:59UA 5799 · flown by SkyWest 3h 02m Chicago ORD 09:01 → AUS 11:59UA 1688 6h 59m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → MKE 05:40 → ATL 08:41DL 1221 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011 6h 45m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → MKE 06:50 → ATL 09:57DL 1236 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → AUS 13:54DL 2104 7h 04m 99% 91%
AmericanDetails → MKE 06:05 → PHL 09:19AA 5200 · flown by PSA 1h 27m Philadelphia PHL 10:46 → AUS 13:43AA 1088 7h 38m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → MKE 07:50 → ORD 09:00UA 4803 · flown by SkyWest 2h 47m Chicago ORD 11:47 → AUS 14:41UA 1061 6h 51m 96% 89%
DeltaDetails → MKE 10:12 → ATL 13:16DL 2999 59m Atlanta ATL 14:15 → AUS 15:50DL 1397 5h 38m 96% 88%
UnitedDetails → MKE 08:50 → ORD 10:00UA 5402 · flown by SkyWest 3h 42m Chicago ORD 13:42 → AUS 16:33UA 1211 7h 43m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → MKE 05:13 → ORD 06:16AA 6261 · flown by SkyWest 2h 05m Chicago ORD 08:21 → AUS 11:02AA 1121 5h 49m 98% 88%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MKE 13:22 → DTW 15:38DL 5476 · flown by Endeavor 57m Detroit DTW 16:35 → AUS 18:41DL 1612 5h 19m 67% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON