tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4864 Southwest MKE 07:52 BWI 10:53 4% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 887 Southwest MKE 15:28 BWI 18:26 9% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 1 h ahead of Milwaukee). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MKE 05:40 → ATL 08:41DL 1221 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711 6h 21m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → MKE 12:58 → ATL 16:07DL 1151 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 19:30 → BWI 21:26DL 1257 7h 28m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → MKE 07:01 → CLT 10:07AA 2866 2h 28m Charlotte CLT 12:35 → BWI 14:11AA 2733 6h 10m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → MKE 10:12 → ATL 13:16DL 2999 2h 04m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → BWI 17:15DL 1267 6h 03m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → MKE 05:13 → ORD 06:16AA 6261 · flown by SkyWest 3h 57m Chicago ORD 10:13 → BWI 13:25AA 4253 · flown by Envoy 7h 12m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → MKE 12:07 → MSP 13:26DL 561 1h 15m Minneapolis MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565 5h 08m 94% 83%
UnitedDetails → MKE 05:00 → ORD 05:59UA 5799 · flown by SkyWest 1h 47m Chicago ORD 07:46 → BWI 10:40UA 1269 4h 40m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → MKE 06:20 → ORD 07:30UA 5896 · flown by SkyWest 3h 21m Chicago ORD 10:51 → BWI 13:57UA 2653 6h 37m 96% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MKE 08:50 → ORD 10:00UA 5402 · flown by SkyWest 51m Chicago ORD 10:51 → BWI 13:57UA 2653 4h 07m 74% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON