Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3044 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 3044 MKE 08:15 → DCA 11:18 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5637 MKE 17:20 → DCA 20:41 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3044 Southwest	MKE 08:15	DCA 11:18	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 5646 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MKE 06:00	DCA 09:11	10%	4%	1.6%	84%
WN 3045 Southwest	MKE 17:15	DCA 20:17	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 5637 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MKE 17:20	DCA 20:41	20%	8%	2.1%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON