Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 3–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2876 MKE 06:34 → DEN 08:05 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5344 MKE 17:55 → DEN 19:33 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2876 Southwest	MKE 06:34	DEN 08:05	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
OO 5501 SkyWest	MKE 10:40	DEN 12:44	6%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 6028 SkyWest	MKE 08:50	DEN 10:51	7%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 2878 Southwest	MKE 12:41	DEN 14:13	8%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 2879 Southwest	MKE 17:36	DEN 19:25	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1969 United	MKE 14:32	DEN 16:06	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 5344 SkyWest	MKE 17:55	DEN 19:33	13%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON